Weighing Strikes on North Korea, Iran, Pakistan April 21, 2011

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Former CIA official Paul Pillar outlines a few possible consequences of a preemptive military strike on Pakistan, North Korea, or Iran, in the name of nuclear non-proliferation.

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On the Rim of the Abyss: Military Intervention to Neutralize a Potential Nuclear Threat

Many have wondered whether Taliban or al Qaeda may wrest control of nuclear arsenals from Pakistani forces, whether instability in the isolated and disaffected regime in North Korea will alter the likelihood of its use of nuclear weapons and whether a nascent Iranian nuclear capability will emerge in the context of an aggressive Iranian regime.

This panel will discuss whether international controls exist to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the wrong hands within a sovereign nation. The experts will discuss whether an obligation or a right to intervene militarily arises and the nature of that intervention. They will discuss what constitutes loss of control by a responsible regime, who is charged with making a determination that such a loss has occurred and based upon what information. They will consider whether there exists a moral or ethical imperative to intervene by conventional military means in order to prevent a takeover of nuclear weapons by rogue elements. They will discuss the scenario of a pre-emptive nuclear strike, and what are the means and legal justifications for either conducting or preventing such an option.

Paul R. Pillar is a 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies and a member of the Center for Peace and Security Studies.He became chief of analysis at the Agency's Counterterrorist Center (CTC) in 1993. By 1997 he was the Center's deputy director. But in summer 1999 he suffered a clash of styles with the new director, Cofer Black. Soon after, Pillar left the Center.